Golfstradamaus: Crowne Plaza Invitational & BMW PGA

Well, it was another week, another first time winner on the PGA Tour. If only it had been the guy I picked and not Brendon Todd. Then, maybe I’d be on a beach somewhere instead of giving you the skinny this week. 

Then again, life is too short to live in the past, especially when the PGA Tour rolls into Fort Worth, Texas, for the Crowne Plaza Invitational. This tournament has long been interesting thanks to its tie to Ben Hogan, propensity for providing proven winners and, in 2003, Annika Sorenstam taking a stab at playing with the men.

This week seems a bit unpredictable considering how many times someone has popped up and collected his first career win, as well as the fact that the last five winners of this tournament have come from behind on Sunday. And with guys like Graham DeLaet and Morgan Hoffmann lurking, it’s tough to tell who might win … unless, of course, you’re Golfstradamaus!

Crowne Plaza Invitational
Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas
May 22-25, 2014

ODDS to Win:
Matt Kuchar 12/1
Adam Scott 15/1
Zach Johnson 15/1
Jim Furyk 15/1
Jordan Spieth 15/1
Dustin Johnson 20/1
Graham DeLaet 25/1
Jimmy Walker 30/1
Chris Kirk 40/1
Ryan Palmer 40/1
Bill Haas 40/1
Jason Dufner 40/1
Rickie Fowler 40/1
Marc Leishman 40/1
John Senden 40/1
Harris English 50/1
Hunter Mahan 50/1
Louis Oosthuizen 50/1
Paul Casey 50/1
Boo Weekley 50/1
Kevin Na 50/1
John Huh 50/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Hideki Matsuyama 60/1
Charley Hoffman 60/1
Matt Jones 60/1
Brendon Todd 60/1
Rory Sabbatini 60/1
Matt Every 60/1
Bo Van Pelt 60/1
Freddie Jacobson 80/1
Brendon de Jonge 80/1
Pat Perez 80/1
Russell Knox 80/1
David Hearn 80/1
Chris Stroud 80/1
Geoff Ogilvy 80/1
Kevin Chappell 80/1
Daniel Summerhays 80/1
Ben Martin 80/1
Seung-Yul Noh 80/1
Nick Watney 100/1
Ryo Ishikawa 100/1
Martin Laird 100/1
George McNeill 100/1
Chesson Hadley 100/1
Kevin Stadler 100/1
Angel Cabrera 125/1
David Toms 125/1
Field (all others) 5/2

 
The first name this week has got to be Jim Furyk. Coming off of back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Wells Fargo Championship and the Players, Furyk deserves a win. He’s got a pretty solid track record here, having finished T-4 in 2012 and T-9 in 2009. At 15/1, he’s no surprise choice and you’d have to bet pretty heavy to earn anything significant, but that shouldn’t deter you from picking him this week. 

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Name No. 2 is a guy I took last week, who played well but came up just short on the weekend. I’m talking about Ryan Palmer and I have a feeling most people will be, too, come Monday. He’s getting 40/1 money this week at a place where he’s finished T-14 and fifth in his last two appearances, and just seven days removed from a top-25 at the HP Byron Nelson. It’s safe to say Palmer will be a factor this week at Colonial. 

A guy I took a lot early on this year, and who played well when I did, is Graham DeLaet. Word is out now and everyone knows he’s probably the best player on tour without a win. After a strong performance last week at the Byron Nelson, it’s time to jump back on the DeLaet bandwagon. Somehow, he’s still getting 25/1 this week. I personally think he should be getting a little more respect but hey, I’m not going to complain; it just means more money in my pocket (and yours) on Monday morning. 

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Lastly this week, I’d like you all to take a look at Ben Martin. Having played some really good golf this year, most of it lately, with third-place finishes at the RBC Heritage and the Puerto Rico Open, Martin has to be on your radar in Texas. Sure, he’s never logged a top-30 at Colonial, but he’s also never played the quality golf he’s been playing lately. At 80/1, he’s a solid low-risk/high-reward pick this week. 

What’s this? Bonus picks from Golfstradamaus? That’s right, I’ve also taken the time to break down the European Tour’s BMW PGA Championship. I figure it’s a big event with a high-quality field and if you’re like me, you’re probably putting some money on it. Here’s a look at the guys I think fare the best this week at Wentworth. 

BMW PGA Championship
Wentworth Club, Surrey, England
May 22-25, 2014

ODDS to Win:  
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Lee Westwood 12/1
Justin Rose 12/1
Luke Donald 12/1
Sergio Garcia 18/1
Henrik Stenson 20/1
Martin Kaymer 20/1
Francesco Molinari 20/1
Charl Schwartzel 30/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 25/1
Jamie Donaldson 30/1
Ian Poulter 30/1
Joost Luiten 40/1
Ross Fisher 40/1
Anders Hansen 50/1
Chris Wood 50/1
Matteo Manassero 50/1
Ernie Els 50/1
Jonas Blixt 60/1
Peter Hanson 60/1
Thomas Bjorn 60/1
Victor Dubuisson WD
Alejandro Canizares 60/1
Alvaro Quiros 80/1
Bernd Wiesberger 80/1
Stephen Gallacher 80/1
Danny Willett 60/1
Padraig Harrington 80/1
Retief Goosen 80/1
Richie Ramsay 80/1
Paul Lawrie 80/1
Tommy Fleetwood 80/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 80/1
Gregory Bourdy 80/1
George Coetzee 80/1
Brooks Koepka 100/1
Pablo Larrazabal 100/1
Thongchai Jaidee 100/1
Julien Quesne 100/1
Robert Karlsson 100/1
Darren Fichardt 100/1
Felipe Aguilar 100/1
Shane Lowry 100/1
Branden Grace 100/1
Nicolas Colsaerts 100/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 125/1
Peter Uihlein 125/1
Alex Noren 125/1
Darren Clarke 500/1
Field (all others) 11/4

 
I know he’s coming off of a surprise breakup, but I still think Rory McIlroy gets it done this week in England. Rors is a former world No. 1 and a two-time major champion. He hasn’t been playing well and I’m sure the breakup was difficult on him, but at the same time, he broke up with her. He had his reasons and now, I suspect, he’ll be playing without the responsibilities and uncertainty that clearly lead to his sub-par (well, not literally sub-par) play lately. At 12/1 he’s the favorite this week despite all the hoopla surrounding him. 

rory-mcilroy-article

Name No. 2 is Padraig Harrington. Sure, he struggled on Sunday at the HP Byron Nelson, but he played well Thursday to Saturday, and encountered some really bad luck on Sunday. I don’t know that he wins this week but he’s certainly capable of it. The last time Harrington played in this event was in 2010, when he finished T-6. The three-time major champion is getting 80/1 money this week, making him a very good low-risk/high-reward pick. 

It’s very hard not to like Martin Kaymer this week at Wentworth considering the roll he’s been on lately. Ever since collecting a career-best T-31 in the Masters, Kaymer has had four top-30 finishes in America and ended a nearly three-year winless drought by winning the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. The former world No. 1 is getting 25/1 money this week, providing solid return on a guy who is a quality pick this week. 

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Finally, you can’t be at Wentworth Club and not look at Luke Donald. If he doesn’t own the place already he’s literally just waiting for someone to die. The old saying, “horses for courses,” certainly holds true for Donald at Wentworth, where he won in 2011 and 2012. At a place with bunkers as deep and greens as demanding as Wentworth, it’s no surprise the Englishman with deft touch would love the place so much. At 12/1, he’s installed as one of the favorites and is probably the safest pick of the eight I’ve given you this week. 

That’s it from me, kiddies. If Darren Clarke (500/1) wins this week, then I’ll catch you later. I’ll be on vacation for a long time. 

– Golfstradamaus

Past Prophecies: Golfstradamaus Archive

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