Golfstradamaus: FedEx St. Jude Classic

“Matsuyama will be a favorite very soon and will collect his first victory at some point this year. I promise.”Golfstradamaus, 2/11

I may not have called it last week, but I did predict that Hideki Matsuyama would win a tournament this year. It didn’t take too long from the time of my declaration for the Japanese prodigy to find his way to the winner’s circle, which obviously doesn’t come as a surprise to me and it shouldn’t to you either.

This week, the PGA Tour is in Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Last year, Harris English picked up his first career win on the PGA Tour. This year, there have been nine first-time winners in 28 events, begging the question: Where are these guys coming from? 

I’ll tell you … they’re coming from the Web.com Tour, they’re coming from the University of Georgia, and they’re coming from a generation that grew up being inspired to pick up clubs and train like the best player in the world, Tiger Woods. This week, however, I expect the trend to change. Intrigued? Keep reading …

FedEx St. Jude Classic
TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tenn. 
June 5-8, 2014

ODDS to Win:
Matt Kuchar WD
Dustin Johnson 15/1
Phil Mickelson 18/1
Lee Westwood 20/1
Zach Johnson 20/1
Ryan Palmer 20/1
Harris English 25/1
John Senden 25/1
Graeme McDowell 30/1
Webb Simpson 30/1
Paul Casey 30/1
Ian Poulter 40/1
Charley Hoffman 40/1
David Toms 40/1
Freddie Jacobson 50/1
Patrick Reed 50/1
Russell Henley 50/1
Billy Horschel 50/1
Charles Howell III 50/1
J.B. Holmes 50/1
David Hearn 50/1
Rickie Fowler 50/1
Martin Flores 60/1
Robert Garrigus 60/1
Michael Thompson 60/1
Kevin Stadler 60/1
Seung-Yul Noh 60/1
Will MacKenzie 80/1
Jeff Overton 80/1
Russell Knox 80/1
Ben Martin 80/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 80/1
Luke Guthrie 80/1
Shawn Stefani 80/1
Kevin Streelman 80/1
Robert Allenby 80/1
Matt Every 80/1
Brian Harman 100/1
Robert Streb 100/1
Camilo Villegas 100/1
Morgan Hoffmann 100/1
Boo Weekley 100/1
George McNeill 100/1
Padraig Harrington 100/1
Retief Goosen 100/1
Bud Cauley 100/1
Stewart Cink 125/1
Geoff Ogilvy 125/1
Chesson Hadley 150/1
Field (all others) 2/1

 
Lately, I’ve been getting in trouble by picking guys in consecutive weeks, and then having them win the first time I don’t pick them because I’m tired of being let down (Matt Kuchar, I’m looking at you, bud). This week, I will not be made to look foolish by not picking Ryan Palmer. Coming off a T-5 at Colonial and headed to a place where he has finished T-3 and solo fourth in his last two trips, I expect big things this week in Memphis. Palmer isn’t a flashy pick, but at 20/1, he is a smart one. 

ryan-palmer-article

Paul Casey has been playing some great golf lately and seemingly has nothing to show for it. In 10 starts this year, the Englishman has collected six top-20 finishes. It seems one round a week costs Casey a shot at his first PGA Tour win since 2009. This week, I think he keeps it together and picks up the 14th win of his professional career, and at 30/1, picking him could benefit your bank account nicely.

The third name is one that I took a couple times early in the year, but one who hasn’t really performed up to snuff until recently. Billy Horschel has played some solid golf following a slow start, finishing T-15 last week at Jack’s place. He also led the field in GIR, something we’ve known Horschel could do since he hit all 18 greens in a round at Merion last year during the U.S. Open. He finished 10th in this event last year as part of his hot summer run, and this week, at 50/1, Horschel is an excellent choice. 

Billy Horschel 600 
Another name to keep an eye on this week is Lee Westwood. With the next major championship less than two weeks away in the U.S. Open, Westwood needs to round into form if he wants to get his name off the dubious list of “best to never win a major.” He has a pretty solid track record at TPC Southwind, finishing T-11 here in his last appearance three years ago. This week he’s getting 20/1 money, making him a decent choice. 

Lee Westwood 600

The last name this week might be a bit of a long shot, but his play as of late has been way too good to ignore. David Toms is a veteran of the PGA Tour and a former major champion whom many have been trying to prematurely put out to pasture on the Champions Tour. But at 47, Toms has kept pace with the young guns on the PGA Tour just fine, finishing T-5 last time out at Colonial and qualifying for the U.S. Open during sectionals just a few days ago. He’s also won this tournament twice. All of that and the fact that he’s getting 40/1 money makes David Toms an excellent choice this week in Memphis. 

There you have it, kids. Don’t be kicking yourself when you check back next week and find out I was right. Just do yourself a favor and listen up now. Your wallet will thank you. 

– Golfstradamaus

Past Prophecies: Golfstradamaus Archieve

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