Golfstradamus: Farmers Insurance Open

Well, what do you know? First week back in print, first check in the winner’s column! Sure, putting money on Rory McIlroy at this point is about as sure a thing as the sun rising, your tax return being smaller than expected and getting stuck behind a school bus when you’re in a hurry. 

This week, I’ll be looking for win No. 2 — and if you didn’t try anything stupid (like Pete Carroll!) then you should be going for your second consecutive W as well. If you’re ready for this week’s picks, get your pencils ready. 

Farmers Insurance Open
Torrey Pines Golf Course – San Diego, Calif. 
February 5-8, 2015

ODDS to Win:
Jordan Spieth 10/1
Jason Day 12/1
Jimmy Walker 15/1
Hideki Matsuyama 20/1
Rickie Fowler 20/1
Justin Rose 25/1
Brandt Snedeker 25/1
Graham DeLaet 25/1
Bill Haas 30/1
Dustin Johnson 30/1
Phil Mickelson 30/1
Brooks Koepka 30/1
Justin Thomas 30/1
Marc Leishman 40/1
Gary Woodland 40/1
Chris Kirk 40/1
Keegan Bradley 40/1
Charley Hoffman 40/1
Tiger Woods 40/1
Billy Horschel 50/1
Harris English 50/1
Martin Laird 50/1
Nick Watney 60/1
Russell Knox 60/1
Scott Piercy 60/1
Pat Perez 60/1
K.J. Choi 60/1
Brendan Steele 60/1
Jamie Donaldson 80/1
Ian Poulter 80/1
Paul Casey 80/1
Luke Donald 80/1
Charles Howell III 80/1
Kevin Chappell 80/1
Seung-Yul Noh 80/1
Scott Stallings 100/1
Sang-Moon Bae 100/1
John Senden 100/1
Ben Martin 100/1
Aaron Baddeley 100/1
Brendon de Jonge 100/1
Angel Cabrera 100/1
Tony Finau 100/1
Daniel Berger 100/1
Jonas Blixt 125/1
Brian Harman 125/1
Shane Lowry 125/1
Morgan Hoffmann 125/1
Ryo Ishikawa 125/1
Field (all others) 3/1

The first name I have for you this week is one I’ve picked a lot in the past but regrettably passed on last week — Brooks Koepka. Repeating on the PGA Tour is next to impossible unless you’re Rory McIlroy, it seems, but Koepka could get it done this week. He’s making his first career start in the Farmers and has already picked up two more top 1o’s on the PGA Tour this year to go along with his win. At 30/1, this could be the last week he pays this well all year. 

brooks-koepka-anchor

Next up is the guy I really thought would win last year and didn’t — Graham DeLaet. DeLaet is arguably the best player on tour without a win, but that could all change this week. He plays well this time of year, is coming of a T-7 last week in Phoenix and finished T-2 here last year. At 25/1, he’s certainly worth a look. 

In keeping with the hot hands, I’m going to be putting some cash on tour rookie Justin Thomas this week as well. It’s hard to ignore what he’s done so far in his rookie campaign — three top 10’s and was likely a water ball on Sunday away from either getting into a play off with Bill Haas or winning the Humana Challenge outright. I wish Thomas were paying better than 30/1, but he’s still worth a bet. 

My two long shot picks this week are Scott Stallings and Ian Poulter. The Poulter pick is self explanatory. He’s still a top-tier player who hasn’t played awful in his last handful of starts and is somehow going off at 80/1. I wouldn’t bet heavy, but he’s certainly worth a look. 

ian-poulter-putt_anchor

Stallings is the defending champion of this event and is getting 100/1 money this week. Sure, he’s been down-right mediocre so far this year, but 100/1? He won here last year. You’d be nuts not to put a couple bucks on Stallings. 

Draft Kings

Last week, my Draft Kings roster didn’t do so hot, but I think I’ve got the hang of it this week. For a change, I actually incorporated a couple of my Vegas bets into my team picks. I suggest you do the same. If you want to see how you stack up against ol’ Golfstradamus and the rest of the internet betting world, head over to DraftKings.com and enter the PGA $25K Chip Shot. Here’s a look at the winning team: 

Brooks Koepka
Graham DeLaet
Dustin Johnson
Max Homa
Erik Compton
Justin Thomas

There you have it friends and degenerate wagers. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to get back to binge watching “House of Cards” in my boxers. Until next time, go and choose wisely. – Golfstradamus.

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