U.S. Open Odds: McIlroy, Mickelson Favorites, But Bad Bets

With the U.S. Open set to tee off Thursday at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina, Rory McIlroy remains the favorite in Las Vegas. But at odds of 10-to-1, we’re not seeing much value in the Northern Irishman.

While McIlroy’s game may be rounding back into form and well-suited for the U.S. Open, golf handicapper Cam Stewart has issues with his putting game. “Doesn’t matter if it’s in Europe, doesn’t matter if it’s North America. I can’t take him because there’s no value on him,” says Stewart. “He misses too many short puts.”

Another player near the top of the oddsboard Stewart is crossing off his list is Phil Mickelson. While Lefty has spoken about his ability to block out distractions created by his legal situation, and the LVH SuperBook’s Jeff Sherman told The Linemakers last week that the insider trading probe hasn’t influenced his oddsmaking, Stewart is avoiding Mickelson at his relatively short price.

A Look Back: Phil Mickelson’s Six U.S. Open Runner-Up Finishes

“Sorry Phil, I can’t take you in this tournament,” says Stewart. “When those legal hawks are all over you, where there’s smoke there’s fire. I can’t take him at 15-to-1. You gotta do better than that.”

Stewart offers up a pair of potential plays, one among the favorites, the other a longshot.

Henrik Stenson, at 25-to-1, is “one of the best golfers in the world,” Stewart believes. “He’s cool as a cucumber, not one of these guys who’s a powder keg of emotion. He can go out there and par-par-par, and that’s what you have to do at the U.S. Open. I really like the big Swede; he hits it a mile.”

The 100-to-1 price on Angel Cabrera is “a bad line,” according to Stewart. The Argentinian “always seems to show up in the big tournaments. You never count him out at the Masters, you never count him out at the U.S. Open. Major value at 100-to-1.”

A few other notables

Stewart isn’t high on Jason Day, listed at 25-to-1 odds, as the Australian’s game is not tailored for Pinehurst. “He’s more of an Augusta player,” says Stewart. “… He’s going through some injury problems, too. I just can’t take him in this tournament.”

It’s imperative to consider the motives of the United States Golf Association when wagering on the Open. The USGA wants the leaders around even par. With that in mind, The Linemakers’ Brian Blessing and Stewart both like Jim Furyk at 30-to-1. He lacks distance off the tee, but he’s accurate and can hang around the leaderboard when he’s on his putting game.

Says Stewart, “How many times have we seen recently him knock down 25-, 30- 35-footers. He keeps it in play. If his putter’s rolling, watch out.”

ODDS TO WIN 2014 U.S. OPEN (LVH)
RORY McILROY 10-1
ADAM SCOTT 12-1
PHIL MICKELSON 15-1
JORDAN SPIETH 20-1
JUSTIN ROSE 20-1
MATT KUCHAR 20-1
BUBBA WATSON 20-1
JASON DAY 25-1
HENRIK STENSON 25-1
JASON DUFNER 30-1
JIM FURYK 30-1
DUSTIN JOHNSON 30-1
SERGIO GARCIA 35-1
GRAEME McDOWELL 40-1
ZACH JOHNSON 40-1
WEBB SIMPSON 40-1
LUKE DONALD 40-1
MARTIN KAYMER 40-1
LEE WESTWOOD 40-1
BRANDT SNEDEKER 50-1
HUNTER MAHAN 50-1
CHARL SCHWARTZEL 50-1
STEVE STRICKER 50-1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 50-1
JIMMY WALKER 50-1
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA 50-1
RICKIE FOWLER 60-1
IAN POULTER 60-1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN 60-1
HARRIS ENGLISH 60-1
GARY WOODLAND 60-1
GRAHAM DeLAET 80-1
BILL HAAS 80-1
JONAS BLIXT 80-1
RYAN MOORE 80-1
BILLY HORSCHEL 80-1
VICTOR DUBUISSON 80-1
PATRICK REED 100-1
ERNIE ELS 100-1
ANGEL CABRERA 100-1
JAMIE DONALDSON 100-1
JOHN SENDEN 100-1
MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ 100-1
FRANCESCO MOLINARI 100-1
CHRIS KIRK 100-1
JOOST LUITEN 100-1
KEVIN NA 100-1
RETIEF GOOSEN 100-1
PAUL CASEY 100-1
STEPHEN GALLACHER 125-1
MATT EVERY 125-1
MATT JONES 150-1
NICK WATNEY 150-1
RUSSELL HENLEY 150-1
GEOFF OGILVY 150-1
BRENDON DE JONGE 150-1
KEVIN STREELMAN 150-1
STEWART CINK 150-1
BO VAN PELT 150-1
RYAN PALMER 150-1
KEVIN STADLER 150-1
GONZALO FERNANDEZ-CASTANO 200-1
NICOLAS COLSAERTS 200-1
BROOKS KOEPKA 200-1
THONGCHAI JAIDEE 200-1
BOO WEEKLEY 200-1
LUKE GUTHRIE 250-1
LUCAS GLOVER 250-1
ROBERTO CASTRO 300-1
Y.E. YANG 400-1
D.A. POINTS 500-1
KENNY PERRY 500-1
DARREN CLARKE 500-1
OLIVER GOSS 500-1
MATTHEW FITZPATRICK 500-1
FIELD (all others) 12-1
TIGER WOODS withdrawn
THOMAS BJORN withdrawn
MICHAEL CAMPBELL withdrawn

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Related Link: Complete 2014 U.S. Open Coverage

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